Is 21-Day Lockdown Enough To Stifle the Growing Covid-19 Cases
India imposed a 21-day nationwide lockdown starting from March 25th to curb the spread of the pandemic coronavirus. The Indian government also mentioned that it has currently no plans to extend the lockdown beyond April 14th by keeping 1.3 billion people on lockdown.
But, Cambridge academics Ronojoy Adhikari and Rajesh Singh commented that 21 days is not sufficient enough to stop the resurgence of coronavirus cases in India. This duo worked out a mathematical model which is based on the country’s specific age as well as the social contact distributions to suggest a longer lockdown period which is interrupted by periods of relaxation.
Ronojoy Adhikari commented that the rate of growth is speedier than the rate of shrinkage. He also quoted an example that, if we are letting the pandemic disease to run loose for 10 days, we will be in a need of more than 10 days of lockdown to bring the number of cases to the level where it has started.
The Adhikari-Singh paper suggests a trio of consecutive lockdowns of 21 days, 28 days and then 8 days, which is uninterrupted by two 5-day relaxation periods that could probably slowdown the contagion which is enough for the health authorities to bring under their control by tracing the contacts of the patients and thereby imposing quarantine measures for them and also diminishing the fatalities due to the pandemic.
A period of seven weeks of uninterrupted lockdown i.e. for 49 days will also achieve a result which is similar.
The number of positive cases in India crossed 1,000 last weekend. Adhikari says that, India will soon enter the community transmission phase i.e. a phase in which the disease will spread freely and people will not be able say precisely how they may have been affected by the virus.
The World Health Organisation has laid emphasis on treatment, quarantine and testing. WHO says that the extensive measures of social distancing like lockdowns will only buy the countries time to battle the virus and hence it won’t come back roaring once the measures has been lifted.